The 143rd Kentucky Derby is May 6th at Churchill Downs in Kentucky and a 70% chance of rain is in the forecast. Finding a good mudder in this group of 20 is nearly impossible. We thank Mike Battaglia, the odds maker at Churchill Downs, for giving us a morning line favorite at 4-1, Classic Empire, but come race day his odds will plummet from that enticing 4-1.
Mudders with potential:
Lancia Stratos HF Predotype (White) 1971Classic Empire (4-1): Broke his maiden on a wet surface at Churchill Downs in 2016. Veteran rider Julien Leparoux has been aboard for all of Classic Empire’s starts.
Tapwrit (20-1): Also broke his maiden over a wet surface. My concern with Tapwrit is that his head is not in the game. He’s worth at look in a superfecta at this price and on Derby Day.
Scale 1 35 wood ship model kit laser cut wood boat model kit14 Frankenstein Horror Classic Movie Vinyl Kit Bust 1 1Gormley (15-1): Also has a win on a wet surface in California, but a wet surface in Southern California is very different than a wet surface in Kentucky. The only advantage for Gormley is his veteran jockey, Victor Espinoza. Gormley races well in California but the ship to Kentucky is a mystery.
Battle of Midway (30-1): Another California shipper who broke his maiden on a wet Santa Anita surface. Finished second behind Gormley in the Santa Anita Derby, has always been in the money in all of his four races. In a very scattered Derby, this horse deserves a look, especially at this price.
The Real Deals:
Classic Empire has been on my radar (and everyone else’s) Tamiya 74801 Sparmax Airbrush SX 0.3D (0.3mm nozzle)since he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s kind of a sassy horse. He’s been known to train when he feels like it, but certainly shows up for the race. With his veteran jockey, consistent money finishes on his resume, and can run on a wet surface, Classic Empire lands on the top of my list. Besides all that, he’s American Pharaoh’s little brother. So the pedigree is perfect.
Tamiya 53908 The Frog (2005) Assembly Universal Shafts, (Brat FAV Wildone), NIPA4030 Mid Torque High Speed Micro Metal HV Servo P-SPMSA4030
McCracken (5-1): McCracken finished third in his last race behind Practical Joke and Irap in the Bluegrass, but again, he didn’t need to win because he was already in with his win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Until the Bluegrass, McCracken was undefeated, and veteran jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. has been with him from the first race.AMT ERTL Star Wars Episode 1 Anakins Pod Racer Kit 1 32 scale 1999 FREE SHIPPING
Filling out the Superfecta:
Always Dreaming (5-1): Three wins in a row for Always Dreaming since veteran jock Johnny Velazquez took over, but only one graded stakes win, the Florida Derby, which he needed to get to Churchill Downs. A veteran rider, but little graded stakes experience and no races on a wet track. However, he’s been training well at Churchill and has put in some impressive bullet works since he arrived.
Axion RC Main Wing (Inc Spar) Alpha 139 2-3X Z-AX-00210-102Scalextric C3826A Jagua E-Type Limited EditionALDI KEVIN KATIE KIDS CARred SET PASCAL BOOK BAG XMAS TREE DECORATIONS PLUSH
Thunder Snow (20-1):JAPANESE SF MOVIE BYE BYE JUPITER THE MAKING BOOK This is the European entry. Entering the gates as a multiple graded stakes winner in Europe with extremely impressing speed figures, but has no American racing experience and has ran most of his races at sprint distances. The check mark on this horse goes to the connections and that the fields in Europe are bigger than they are here. The UAE Derby, which Thunder Snow won, had 15 entries. He will not be shy of the 20 in the gate.
State of Honor (30-1): I wanted to make this horse my superfecta filler, but he has one knock: His jockey, Jose Lezcano. Julien Leparoux has been on State of Honor for his last four races, which were stakes races, and in which State of Honor finished on the board all four times. But, Leparoux is also the jockey for Classic Empire. (What a choice?) This Mark Casse trainee gets a definite look and will be taking superfecta money come post time.
Practical Joke (20-1) was doing fine until he got into races with the other Derby contenders then he couldn’t seem to get around Gunnevera, Classic Empire or Irap. He has no wet surface races, doesn’t like the distance or the crowds.
- Warhammer 40k Necrons 8 SCARAB SWARMS metal out of print edition (PB1 234)
- Athearn HO SD70M EMDX Lease DCC & Tsunami 2 Sound ATHG69327
- Extreme Fliers Micro Drone 3.0 Standard Camera FPV Bundle with Wi-Fi HD Camera x
- BT501-2 x Roco H0 Dc Wagen Nem 14936+11 003+3947+92-11 110 + 33 024
- Octoplay Work Cards (25 double sided cards). Polydron. Shipping is Free
- Life-Like Trains Predo 2000 HO Scale Moore & Company Warehouse Kit NEW S6
- BX606-0, 5 x Märklin H0 Piezas de Rampa Puente Celosía 7268 7262k + M Pista
- Dji CP.AL.000050 Lightbridge 2 Part12 Antennasantenna Holder
- Lote 5AM AM11+12 2 Autocares SNCF 1 87 HO Auto Tren yellow z105+ zr 20001
- Roco 76595 Spitzdachwagen, FS - Neu in OVP
- Antiguo Lote Indio Playmobil Oeste Western Guerrero Cazador Poblado Totem Canoa
- New Porsche 935 Kremer K3 Transkit in 1 12 scale Resin New
- Wit S 1 43 Gloria Gran Turismo 300 Sv White Case With Wake
- Toy Story Collection Talking Sheriff Woody
- Chasis principal aluminio +4mm Hot Bodies D817 204040
- Tamiya CLK DTM 2002 AMG-Mercedes (TB-02) Ceramic Sealed Bearing Kit
- VALLEJO GAME COLOR BUNDLE CHOOSE ANY 22 X 17ml PAINT BOTTLES RANGE OF COLOURS
- FG Modellsport Front bumper Merc C-Cl DTM 06 Z-FG07231
- Piron WPL Ural B36 1 16 Six-drive Military Card Command Communication Vehicle
- Starlux Gaul - With Sword in Cape - 60mm painted soldier - Only 1 remains
- Kitty Hawk KH32002 1 32 T-6 Texan
- Large redtweiler Standing Lifelike Stuffed Animal Dog Plush Toy 60 cm UK SELLER
- 1960s VINTAGE R-10 TOWER STAT SLOT CAR CONTROLLER, ORIGINAL IN THE BOX NR.MINT
- Britain's KNIGHTS AND SARACENS Figure Bundle Job Lot. FREE UK POST