The 143rd Kentucky Derby is May 6th at Churchill Downs in Kentucky and a 70% chance of rain is in the forecast. Finding a good mudder in this group of 20 is nearly impossible. We thank Mike Battaglia, the odds maker at Churchill Downs, for giving us a morning line favorite at 4-1, Classic Empire, but come race day his odds will plummet from that enticing 4-1.
Mudders with potential:
Steamforged Games DARK SOULS - The Board Game Darkroot Expansion SFDS006Classic Empire (4-1): Broke his maiden on a wet surface at Churchill Downs in 2016. Veteran rider Julien Leparoux has been aboard for all of Classic Empire’s starts.
Tapwrit (20-1): Also broke his maiden over a wet surface. My concern with Tapwrit is that his head is not in the game. He’s worth at look in a superfecta at this price and on Derby Day.
Schuco 203099623 Feuerwehrmann Sam Fire Rescue CentreDCC decoder Soundtraxx Tsunami SoundCar Digital Sound DecoderGormley (15-1): Also has a win on a wet surface in California, but a wet surface in Southern California is very different than a wet surface in Kentucky. The only advantage for Gormley is his veteran jockey, Victor Espinoza. Gormley races well in California but the ship to Kentucky is a mystery.
Battle of Midway (30-1): Another California shipper who broke his maiden on a wet Santa Anita surface. Finished second behind Gormley in the Santa Anita Derby, has always been in the money in all of his four races. In a very scattered Derby, this horse deserves a look, especially at this price.
The Real Deals:
Classic Empire has been on my radar (and everyone else’s) Tamiyo, le Sage de la Lune PREMIUM FOIL VO - The Moon Sage - Mtg magicsince he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s kind of a sassy horse. He’s been known to train when he feels like it, but certainly shows up for the race. With his veteran jockey, consistent money finishes on his resume, and can run on a wet surface, Classic Empire lands on the top of my list. Besides all that, he’s American Pharaoh’s little brother. So the pedigree is perfect.
North Coast Role Playing - Issues 1-9 of Classic Traveller RPG FanzineYu-Gi-Oh Dark Neostorm Booster Box New Sealed PRE-ORDER
McCracken (5-1): McCracken finished third in his last race behind Practical Joke and Irap in the Bluegrass, but again, he didn’t need to win because he was already in with his win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Until the Bluegrass, McCracken was undefeated, and veteran jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. has been with him from the first race.Jarre-mémoire - Memory Jar - Magic mtg - NM- or Exc+
Filling out the Superfecta:
Always Dreaming (5-1): Three wins in a row for Always Dreaming since veteran jock Johnny Velazquez took over, but only one graded stakes win, the Florida Derby, which he needed to get to Churchill Downs. A veteran rider, but little graded stakes experience and no races on a wet track. However, he’s been training well at Churchill and has put in some impressive bullet works since he arrived.
Little Circuses - IDW Games Board Game New Warhammer Lumpin Croop Halfling x 10 - OOPBattletech painted Xanthos battlemech DHG
Thunder Snow (20-1):Hordes Legion of Everblight Lot- Absylonia, Rhyas, Battlegroup (U-B9S3 203568) This is the European entry. Entering the gates as a multiple graded stakes winner in Europe with extremely impressing speed figures, but has no American racing experience and has ran most of his races at sprint distances. The check mark on this horse goes to the connections and that the fields in Europe are bigger than they are here. The UAE Derby, which Thunder Snow won, had 15 entries. He will not be shy of the 20 in the gate.
State of Honor (30-1): I wanted to make this horse my superfecta filler, but he has one knock: His jockey, Jose Lezcano. Julien Leparoux has been on State of Honor for his last four races, which were stakes races, and in which State of Honor finished on the board all four times. But, Leparoux is also the jockey for Classic Empire. (What a choice?) This Mark Casse trainee gets a definite look and will be taking superfecta money come post time.
Practical Joke (20-1) was doing fine until he got into races with the other Derby contenders then he couldn’t seem to get around Gunnevera, Classic Empire or Irap. He has no wet surface races, doesn’t like the distance or the crowds.
- GERMANY SCHLEICH WORLD OF NATURE MODEL SH42349 DINOSAUR NEST & QUETZALCOATLUS
- TSR Basic D&D Quest for the Heartstone SC VG
- Plasticville - O-O27 - HF-2 Dealer Box - HTF - COMPLETE - Excellent
- HO Athearn RTR B&LE SD45T-2 diesel engine in original box
- 25” RC Remote Control 4 Channels Sailboat 120SH Motor - Rainbow
- Sachsenmodelle 16066 großraum-güterwagen eanos der ns blue ep.4 6 für H0, selten
- SERPENT 600299 Aluminium Mono Engine Mount Set
- Kibri Bausatz 39219 H0 Fahrzeughalle Berufsfeuerwehr
- Auhagen 11417 Stadthäuser Schmidtstraße 27 29
- Playmobil History Greek Gods 9526 DEMETER
- Ravensburger Manhattan Lights Panorama Puzzle (1000 Piece)
- BN424-0,5 Märklin H0 Ac 4736 Auto Poste Ferrovia Germe. Federale Nem Kk ,Nuovo
- Schumacher Cat Procat Cougar Topcat alloy aftermarket wheels. Vintage
- Family Guy Limited Edition Lithograph Prints - bluee Harvest & Something Darkside
- Konami Edge Visor Action Sports Toy
- Steiff Renny the Reindeer 1968-1970 14 tag only, no flag and no button
- BULLMARK vintage Japanese Saru no Gundan vinyl figure 4 sofubi striped shirt
- IXO cac002 VW T1 Westfalia SO42 Camper Green White Scale 1 43 NEW °
- HPI BAJA ALLOY PULLSTARTER FOR HPI BAJA 5B,5T,5SC,1 5,FG,MCD,CY,MARDER,LOSI,KM
- Vintage Ansmann 125000353 Carbon Rear Brace Mad Rat X XT 2WD
- WOODLAND SCENICS WS-TR1588 4In- 6In RM REAL blueE SPRUCE 13 PK