The 143rd Kentucky Derby is May 6th at Churchill Downs in Kentucky and a 70% chance of rain is in the forecast. Finding a good mudder in this group of 20 is nearly impossible. We thank Mike Battaglia, the odds maker at Churchill Downs, for giving us a morning line favorite at 4-1, Classic Empire, but come race day his odds will plummet from that enticing 4-1.
Mudders with potential:
MTG Foil Arcum Dagsson (Coldsnap) NMClassic Empire (4-1): Broke his maiden on a wet surface at Churchill Downs in 2016. Veteran rider Julien Leparoux has been aboard for all of Classic Empire’s starts.
Tapwrit (20-1): Also broke his maiden over a wet surface. My concern with Tapwrit is that his head is not in the game. He’s worth at look in a superfecta at this price and on Derby Day.
Winning Moves Monopoly The Big Bang Theory - Edición InglésPiko 55008 Fahrregler Basic, H0Gormley (15-1): Also has a win on a wet surface in California, but a wet surface in Southern California is very different than a wet surface in Kentucky. The only advantage for Gormley is his veteran jockey, Victor Espinoza. Gormley races well in California but the ship to Kentucky is a mystery.
Battle of Midway (30-1): Another California shipper who broke his maiden on a wet Santa Anita surface. Finished second behind Gormley in the Santa Anita Derby, has always been in the money in all of his four races. In a very scattered Derby, this horse deserves a look, especially at this price.
The Real Deals:
Classic Empire has been on my radar (and everyone else’s) Fleischmann N 7369 E-Lok BR 132 101-7 DB (V4527)since he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s kind of a sassy horse. He’s been known to train when he feels like it, but certainly shows up for the race. With his veteran jockey, consistent money finishes on his resume, and can run on a wet surface, Classic Empire lands on the top of my list. Besides all that, he’s American Pharaoh’s little brother. So the pedigree is perfect.
Star Command Base Station Walkie-talkie Set, Kidz Toyz, Vintage, 90's, Unused4x Slightly Played Kolaghan's Command Dragons of Tarkir MTG DeadGuyGames
McCracken (5-1): McCracken finished third in his last race behind Practical Joke and Irap in the Bluegrass, but again, he didn’t need to win because he was already in with his win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Until the Bluegrass, McCracken was undefeated, and veteran jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. has been with him from the first race.Roco N 24003 3er Set Selbstentladewagen RAG Ruhrkohle AG beladen DB OVP (RB6135)
Filling out the Superfecta:
Always Dreaming (5-1): Three wins in a row for Always Dreaming since veteran jock Johnny Velazquez took over, but only one graded stakes win, the Florida Derby, which he needed to get to Churchill Downs. A veteran rider, but little graded stakes experience and no races on a wet track. However, he’s been training well at Churchill and has put in some impressive bullet works since he arrived.
Star Wars Force Collection Cad Bane 8 16 sk505 METAL PLASTIC SKINK OLD VETERAN HEROES HEROES WARHAMMER AGE SIGMAR1999 Pokemon Song Best Collection Promos Japanese Charizard READ Card 3c7
Thunder Snow (20-1):Fleischmann N 7348 E-Lok BR 111 205-1 DB OVP (RB8126) This is the European entry. Entering the gates as a multiple graded stakes winner in Europe with extremely impressing speed figures, but has no American racing experience and has ran most of his races at sprint distances. The check mark on this horse goes to the connections and that the fields in Europe are bigger than they are here. The UAE Derby, which Thunder Snow won, had 15 entries. He will not be shy of the 20 in the gate.
State of Honor (30-1): I wanted to make this horse my superfecta filler, but he has one knock: His jockey, Jose Lezcano. Julien Leparoux has been on State of Honor for his last four races, which were stakes races, and in which State of Honor finished on the board all four times. But, Leparoux is also the jockey for Classic Empire. (What a choice?) This Mark Casse trainee gets a definite look and will be taking superfecta money come post time.
Practical Joke (20-1) was doing fine until he got into races with the other Derby contenders then he couldn’t seem to get around Gunnevera, Classic Empire or Irap. He has no wet surface races, doesn’t like the distance or the crowds.
- LS MODELS 49141 Typ SG blue 1956, Rahmen lang, Dach normal, Waffen CIWL, OSE
- Hornby R2291A Class 90 90037 in Railfreight Distribution grey
- Atlas O Gauge 40' Steel Reefer car NIB 3 Rail New York Central car12345
- SG106 Foldable Quadcopter 1080P Camera Wifi FPV APP Control Foldable 2 Batteries
- LOT OF4 Fidget Cube Desk Finger Toy Fidget Toys Antistress Stress Cube Toys
- Marvel Comics Officially Licensed AvengersAge Of Ultron Hulkbuster 2-channel
- BACHMANN LIMITED EDITION WAGON DCL EDINBURGH (33-177V)
- American Flyer No. XA10961-L Log Unloading Car Brown Red Mottled Control Box
- Wooden Vehicle Carrier Playset Kids Preschool Pretend Play Toy Birthday Gift
- Aoshima 1 350 Scale Ironclad Series Japanese Navy Battle Ship Kirishima 1942
- 2-Blatt Luftschraube Elektro Beechwood Precision Paar 22 x 10 XOAR 34220100 8520
- FIGARTI PEWTER WW2 GERMAN ETG-023 HERE THEY COME MIB
- Traxxas TRA7711X ProGraphix Pro-Graphics Body +Decals (Needs Paint) 1 5 X-Maxx
- Vintage Prehistoric Scenes Aurora Tyrannosaurus Rex Dinosaur For Parts Used
- Mint Half Price Level 1 24 Ferrari 599 Gtb Fiorano
- ACW078 2nd Wisconsin Volunteers Standing Loading by First Legion
- Scalextric 1 32 Scale BMW 125 Series 1 BTCC, BTCC 2016 IHG Rob Collard Slot Car
- 10 PEANUTS CAMP SNOOPY BredHER ANDY GREEN SHIRT CREME STUFFED ANIMAL PLUSH TOY
- 1 35th Scale Dragon Models German WWII Officer Assembled And Painted
- Smooshy Mushy Lot 12 DIFFERENT Series 1 Syrup Ketchup RARE Creamery Unicorn CAKE
- FACTORY SEALED Boss Nova Draggin' Wagon by AMT Ertl for Model King P